CAPA Election Poll: Skerrit leads Marcellin in Vieille Case constituency

Electoral politics is the vehicle of authority, and public opinion is the fuel for that vehicle. Election is a numbers game and the candidates who receive the most votes win; hence the need for constant monitoring of the numbers in the lead-up to general elections. Those numbers come from the people by way of their opinions, and in order to gauge partisan pre-elections strengths, voting trends are measured.

There are standard ways by which such information is gathered and this date back to 1824. It was George H. Gallup, a syndicated newspaper research analyst, who is to be credited for the scientific method of polling which is used in public opinion gathering in the modern era. Gallup correctly predicted President Roosevelt’s election victory in the 1930s using a small representative sample-size approach to field survey; his method remains the benchmark of scientific market surveys.

Caribbean Agency for Political Advancement (CAPA) has the human resources with both the professional training and practical experience to conduct such public scientific surveys. The following analysis comes from our most recent field survey which sought to determine the electability of declared or presumptive political party candidates ahead of the 2019/2020 Dominica general elections. The substantive inquiry question, however, is whether the Dominica Labour Party (DLP) will continue to serve as the majority party in the government of Dominica if elections were held today? The survey was a random convenient quantitative exercise conducted from May 26 – June 16, 2019.

The rationale for releasing this particular set of results is tied to public demands for analysis of our findings. The figures for Vieille Case Constituency were selected for release because it is the constituency of the head of the government of Dominica and Parliamentary Representative, the Honorable Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit.