CAPA Election Poll: Skerrit leads Marcellin in Vieille Case constituency

A total of 2194 electors.

Two political party candidates have been declared to contest the Vieille Case constituency; they are Clement Marcellin of the United Workers Party (UWP) and Roosevelt Skerrit of the Dominica Labour Party (DLP). Responses were therefore received in the name of those candidates and parties.

The standard sample size for scientific surveys, as designed by Gallup, is 1% of the electors, but we chose to poll 1.5% (33) of the electors in proportion to the electors per district(s).

In response to the first question: which political party candidate/representative is more in touch (on the ground) with the voters/people in your constituency? 42% of the people think that Skerrit spends more time on the ground than his challenger (Marcellin) who, according to the opinions of 33% of respondents, is a bit less visible on the ground. 3% of respondents indicated that both Skerrit and Marcellin share equal time on the ground and 5% claimed that they have not seen any of the two major party candidates. The remaining 17% of respondents did not provide a response to this question.

Responses to question 2, which political party candidate/representative will you vote for at the next general elections, were as follows: Skerrit – 43.7%, Marcellin – 31.8%, remaining 24.5% of respondents – undecided. On question 3 (Which political party/candidate did you vote for at the last election?), based on the  responses 66% of the votes were casted for Skerrit of the DLP, 22% for the UWP, 9% withheld information on how they voted and 3% of respondents did not vote in the last general election.

Responding to question 4, will the present economic uncertainty in Dominica influence your vote, 36.4% declare that Dominica’s economy does have a bearing on their vote, and 45.5% said no. 12.1% of respondents were undecided on that question while 6% remained neutral (50/50). 1% of respondents were unregistered and 12.1% did not disclose their registration status. On question 6, how likely are you to vote for candidates and/or political parties who offer money and valuable items like appliances, 94% of respondents say that there is no likelihood of this being the case while 6% declared that it is somewhat likely – if the price is right.

On the question as to whether respondents would indeed vote at the upcoming general elections, it was determined that 75.8 % are planning to vote. 15% said they will not vote and 9.2% were unsure about voting.  Responses to questions 8, 9, 10 and 11 from this and any other published analysis are being withheld because of a strategic decision. On the final and main survey question, ‘do you think that the present DLP government has performed well enough to convince you to vote them into office for a fifth consecutive 5-year term,’ the overwhelming majority of respondents, which includes a percentage of those who declared that they will vote for the DLP at the upcoming elections, responded no.

These results were compiled from raw data and are being presented to the public for analysis. As stated previously, this decision was taken following keen public interest in CAPA’s research methodology and other survey-related concerns of, and interest in our latest work. Fourteen constituencies – Castle Bruce, Cottage, La Plaine, Mahaut, Morne Jaune, Petite Savanne, Portsmouth, Roseau Central, Roseau Valley, Salybia, St. Joseph, Vieille Case, Wesley and Soufriere – were polled with the statistical margin of error being 3.91% +/-. It is unlikely that further results will be published because such is hardly ever done. This executive decision to release the figure for Vieille Case was taken in the interest of transparency and professional responsibility.