The DLP would probably not hold on to the ruling majority in the government of Dominica if elections were held today.
In an earlier statement to the media, we declared that the DLP would probably not hold on to the ruling majority in the government of Dominica if elections were held today. We still stand by this statement. Upon analysis of the responses, when the undecided numbers are taken into account, there does not appear to be sufficient committed votes in favor of DLP to ensure a win. The DLP did not accrue 50% favorability and over in any of the 14 constituencies which were surveyed.
The unemployment rate was astronomical (over 57% with youth unemployment even higher), and post-Maria migration is close to 1.7%. Money or big campaign spending did not poll as being a factor which would impact voting, and there seems to be this compelling attitude among respondents which speaks to government change and electoral reform. The third party factor is observed in only two constituencies, with the impact reaching double digits (12%) in favor of the Dominica Freedom Party (DFP) in one particular constituency.
What is most noteworthy, however, is the percentage of undecided voters which averaged 26.6% across the 14 constituencies surveyed. The undecided percentage was above 30% in at least four (4) constituencies and 20% and above in five (5) areas. There is strong indications that the undecided voters could tilt the balance of power in the upcoming Dominica general elections, because the trends are strongly in favour of the opposition United Workers Party (UWP). This position was arrived at because the average of undecided voters who stated that the DLP does not deserve another five (5) year term in office, across the 14 constituencies polled, is higher than 80%.
This research was commissioned and sponsored by parties with interest in electoral politics on the island of Dominica.
Resolution
There is an air of anxiety and expectancy among the people, which if not properly managed, may lead to unintended results. Politicians and parties with interest in electoral politics on the island of Dominica should not take the mood of the Dominican electorates for change and reform for granted.
This article is copyright © 2019 DOM767
