The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. Weather Forecaster Annie Carrette-Joseph has announced that Dominica is expected to experience increased rainfall from June to November. The forecast indicates wetter-than-usual conditions for these months, with models predicting more frequent wet days and seven-day wet spells.
Typically, Dominica sees between 49 to 68 wet days, but this year the number is likely to exceed 68. The models also suggest up to 10 seven-day wet spells, where rainfall amounts are 1 millimetre or more each day, and between two to eight very wet spells.
Carrette-Joseph highlighted the potential for flash floods, particularly for June, July, and August. She mentioned that at least five excessive rainfall events of 30 millimetres within 24 hours are expected at Canefield Airport (DCF), and about eight at Douglas-Charles Airport (DOM). These conditions could trigger flash floods, with an extremely high confidence level in this prediction.
Despite these wet conditions, no drought concerns are anticipated for Dominica. Carrette-Joseph explained that the dry conditions from the previous season are expected to be alleviated by the increased rainfall during the wet season. She also noted that if frequent Saharan dust is present, there will be fewer wet days and an increased chance of dry spells.
The Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above average. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have projected 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher. This prediction surpasses the average season, which typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Factors contributing to this busy season include near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear. NOAA forecasters do not predict landfalls, underscoring the importance of preparation.
Carrette-Joseph also mentioned that the frequent disruptions due to rainfall could create an environment conducive to pests and diseases, despite reducing bushfire potential.
Overall, authorities emphasize the need for preparedness as the Atlantic hurricane season progresses, with heightened vigilance due to the forecasted increase in rainfall and potential severe weather events.
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